Midterms 2014: Special Election FL-13 With Three Weeks To Go. Here's Some Polling.

I mentioned earlier there is a special election (even with the regular election still nine months away) being held to fill the vacancy for US House Florida District 13.  The polling back then was pretty much up for grabs, one side's poll services favoring their own candidate and all, and so I waited for a less-biased source to give us some update.

The local paper St. Pete (fine, fine) Tampa Bay Times came out with a poll a few days ago:

In the hard-fought and nationally watched campaign, 42 percent would vote for (Democratic candidate Alex) Sink, 35 percent for (Republican David) Jolly and 4 percent for Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby, according to an exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF Public Media poll of likely voters in Congressional District 13. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

Now, 42 percent for Democrat Sink over 35 percent to Republican Jolly isn't too shabby (7 percent difference), but you've got a third-party candidate in the Libertarian Overby sitting there at 4 percent and you've got a "margin of error" (the statistical probability that the polled population might be skewed) at 4 percent already that knocks the likelihood for Sink down to a 3 percent lead.  There's little room for error here.

The polling also notes what's at stake:

Of those who support Sink, 81 percent also support Obamacare. Of those who support Jolly, 84 percent also oppose Obamacare.

Supporters of both candidates felt passionately about the issue.

More than two-thirds of Sink and Jolly supporters said their candidate's position on the law was a "very important" or "somewhat important" reason for their support...

This is the first true campaign following the start-up of Obamacare (AKA the nowhere-near-universal-healthcare-like-all-other-capitalist-nations-deploy series of healthcare reforms) that's got it as an issue front-and-center.  Not the need for more jobs or better wages, but Obamacare.  There's a reason a lot of outside-the-district and even outside-the-state money is getting funneled into this: whoever wins this dictates what the primary nationwide party platform for the regular midterms will be.

If the Republican Jolly wins campaigning heavily against Obamacare, it will signal the rest of the Congressional GOP that they can use the repealing of it as their main weapon.  It will force the Democrats to play defense on the issue, talking about Obamacare rather than the more polling-friendly issues like raising the minimum wage and creating more jobs.

If the Democrat Sink wins campaigning in favor of Obamacare, and winning a Republican-designed gerrymandered district doing so, it will signal that repealing Obamacare is a losing argument for the Republicans.  The polling showed 47 percent oppose Obamacare in the district over 43 percent in favor, and if Sink still wins it means that issue didn't help Jolly over the hump.  It will free up the Democrats to campaign on their own issues, again the raising of the minimum wage and creating more jobs.

To be fair, this being a special election doesn't say much about who's going to succeed in November: that's still nine months away and anything can happen between then and now; there may be other factors at stake here such as voters sometimes voting for a fresh (party) face to serve a district after a long-standing incumbent (like Bill Young, who'd been serving in Congress since - Dear God - 1970?!) retires or dies; and while Obamacare may be the issue for 80+ percent of the polled, there may be other issues at stake for those who won't use the healthcare laws to make their decisions.

...Independent voters have the potential to play a big role in the race. According to the Pinellas Supervisor of Elections, about 37.1 percent of district voters are Republicans, 34.7 percent are Democrats and 24 percent have "no party affiliation." (The rest belong to smaller political parties.)

The poll found that independents aren't leaning strongly in either direction. Thirty-three percent of independents backed Sink, 27 percent backed Jolly, 9 percent backed Overby and 23 percent were undecided...

But, just saying, if Sink wins a Republican-designed district even with a controversial healthcare law dangling around her neck you're gonna see a lot of unhappy far right campaign consultants racing about for something else for their Tea-Party leaning candidates to rally around.  And there's not much else out there the GOP can campaign on as a positive...

And this is why, still vitally important y'all, to GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT people.  Gotta get those 23 percent undecided independents to make up their minds and vote for Sink.  This is key: for the LOVE OF GOD don't vote Republican...

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Current Writing Status: Published Again, Yay

I've gotten another short story accepted and published by Mystery & Horror LLC, for their current anthology Mardi Gras Murder. Apropos as we're in the season for it.  The story title is "Why The Mask."  It's got Mardi Gras.  It's got murder.  I hope you enjoy reading it.

It's available right now via Amazon.com, and print copies are being shipped to the submitted authors as I type this.

As for my previous submission to M&H LLC, "I Must Be Your First" for Strangely Funny, I've gotten some decent notices in the book reviews so far on Amazon and GoodReads.  I hope "Why The Mask" gets an equally receptive response.

Now... to get this damnable first novel finished!  Arrrrgh...

P.S. Anyone going to MegaCon this March?

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Here's a Bad Launch of a Website, Fellahs

For all the griping done about the HealthCare.gov launch fiasco of three months ago, it has nothing on how bad the redesign and launch of the website (once FLUID, now CONNECT) accessing Florida unemployment benefits went.

A week before the botched launch of Florida's new unemployment benefits website, state senators grilled an agency chief and heard no warning about the chaos to come.

The CONNECT project was well managed and extensive testing showed system failure was unlikely, said Tom Clendenning, director of the Department of Economic Opportunity's workforce services.
"This has been carefully planned out," Clendenning said, smiling broadly during an Oct. 9 Senate hearing. "You can never be too 100 percent bulletproof, so we do have a contingency if in fact the new system isn't ready."

Six days later, the $63 million CONNECT website launched so riddled with technical glitches that it has left thousands of unemployed Floridians without the money they need for food, rent and bills.

The problems were so bad that the DEO began fining the contractor $15,000 a day and federal officials intervened, convincing the state to pay the back claims so claimants could get their money. Two months after CONNECT's debut, so many claims remained unpaid that the DEO hired an extra 330 employees, at a cost of $165,000 a week...

The only good thing that could be said about this disaster was that at least 330 new jobs were filled, however temporary.

...The main contractor of the project, Deloitte Consulting, won the bid to modernize Florida's unemployment compensation system by beating out nine other firms. In early 2011, the company negotiated with Florida that it could do all the work for $39.8 million and finish by December 2012, a deadline it blew — badly. (note: the rollout was finally done in October 2013, which tells you how bad)

As contracts go, this wasn't a big one for Deloitte Consulting, a U.S. company that's part of an international British conglomerate better known as Deloitte & Touche. Since 2007, Deloitte Consulting has won $283.4 million in contracts with Florida agencies.

Its interests are protected by one of the most powerful lobbyists in Tallahassee, Brian Ballard, a major campaign fundraiser for Gov. Rick Scott and other GOP officials...

Nah, nothing to see here, just another living-off-the-government-teat private firm allied with a political party that's openly accusing the unemployed of being lazy free-loaders.  Nothing to see, move along move along...

...McCullion put Deloitte on notice that the contract would be terminated unless an agreement was reached on how to conclude the project, alluding to the company's problems in other states, such as California, New Mexico and Massachusetts, with launching a similar system for unemployment benefits.

"Deloitte's demonstrated inability to implement the solution in other jurisdictions has undermined the (DEO's) confidence that Deloitte will successfully complete the (project)," McCullion wrote on June 15, 2012. "The Department contracted for a viable, proven solution. It now appears that the Department is being asked to fund a software development project with limited prospects for success."

One week later, though, the DEO approved Deloitte's final design. On July 13, Deloitte and the DEO signed a new agreement that stated the contractor has "demonstrated its willingness and ability to perform in adherence to the contract terms and condition."

By the time Panuccio, a lawyer by training with no administrative experience, became DEO executive director in 2013, Deloitte again began submitting expensive cost requests...

At the library where I work, we have a constant flow of patrons coming in to file for benefits.  Ever since the launch of the CONNECT system, I haven't seen that many of them: I'm wondering how many of them were so discouraged by the foul-ups that they stopped even trying (or if they went to the One-Stop employment centers for direct help).

As someone who was long-suffering in the job-hunting process between 2009 to 2013, I can tell you the benefits I got from the unemployment funds helped.  Not enough to cover things like a mortgage and car repairs (that fell upon my parents, and damn I owe them a lot more than just the money), but enough to keep me out there on a daily basis looking for work and interviewing for openings.

For the state of Florida to pay out such an important project to a company that had shown a poor history of website design and launching... for them to pay out to a company tied in deep to the dominating political party of both the state legislature and the governor's office... for letting this go MONTHS to such an extent that the feds have to step in to try and fix things...  This story is a bigger scandal than how it's being told.  This is a disaster that has been decades in the making, as the Republicans have been the dominant party since the 1990s and have developed enough rot and corruption to have this state on the verge of collapse...

It's not just this website rollout that's been a nightmare.  There's been a lot of other disasters that our state legislature are failing to address, that our governor's office is choosing to ignore.

GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT, FLORIDA.  Stop voting Republican.  You're just encouraging the rot.

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Dear Unemployed: Time To Get Your RAGE On

This continues to piss me off, even though - THANK GOD - I am now employed.

...Republican senators on Thursday blocked a three-month revival of long-term unemployment compensation for 1.7 million Americans out of work.

Democrats fell just one vote short of the 60 needed to break a filibuster. Four Republicans voted with Democrats -- Sen. Dean Heller (NV), Kelly Ayotte (NH), Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Susan Collins (ME). Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) changed his vote at the last minute to preserve the option of bringing up the bill in the future. The final vote was 58-40...

...The reality is a large number of Republicans want the program to end but don't want to say so because it's popular. First enacted in 2008, amid economic free-fall, it provides insurance to Americans who are looking for work for up to 99 weeks. It expired on Dec. 28.

A follow-up vote Thursday to extend the unemployment benefits for three months, without a pay-for, also failed 55-43...

I guarantee this continues to piss off millions of long-term unemployed Americans who've been stuck like I had been for years: unable to convince HR departments to hire us, unable to find money to start our own businesses, unable to get into a job market that's biased against anyone with a high-level college degree or is over the age of 40...

In a just world, every damn Senator who just voted to block this emergency extension should stand in the unemployment lines for six straight months and see how THEY like it.  No, better, make it six straight YEARS...

The g-ddamn filibuster needs to go for ALL non-appointee bills coming to the floor.  THIS OBSTRUCTION IS KILLING OUR ECONOMY AND OUR NATION.  I know Dems fear the possibility that they'll find themselves in a minority in the Senate, but DAMMIT we shouldn't have our government stuck on STALL all the time!

Every unemployed person needs to find the nearest Republican Senator's office and start a sit-in protest.  DAMN THESE SENATORS.  They gonna arrest you?  So?  No jury in the nation - unless it's a jury made up of hedge fund managers - will convict you.

RAGE.

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Midterms 2014: Keeping Up With the 13th District Special.

Due to rules (seat has to be filled within 90 days or so), there's a special election to fill a US House seat in the Florida 13th District even with a general election for the seat again just months (Nov) down the road.  And the money is rolling in:

In an unprecedented financial war being waged on television screens throughout Pinellas County, outside groups are spending more than $4 million to support - and trash - Democratic congressional candidate Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly.

More than $2.6 million has been spent on television ads for Sink, including $1.9 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Jolly supporters have shelled out $1.6 million, including more than $700,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The election is viewed as a harbinger of how the overall midterms will do: how viable the Democratic or Republican platforms are to the voters.  The 13th District has been a Republican, conservative-leaning district for decades (also when it was a different number, but still covering the same ground), but the area and the state in general has been "going purple" or leaning blue over the last few years...

Why the barrage? A mixture of numbers, timing and politics makes Pinellas County's 13th Congressional District a possible microcosm of national congressional elections this fall.

Both major parties have a solid chance at victory in the Pinellas district, where about 37.1 percent of registered voters are Republicans, 34.7 percent are registered Democrats, 24 percent have "no party affiliation," and the others are in smaller political parties.

The district is technically +3 Republican, but the 24 percent of no-party affiliates are key (the moderate middle always is, dammit, so GET THE DAMN VOTE OUT).

Right now, the polling I'm finding is either from one party - there's a DCCC poll showing Sink in the lead - or from polling firms working for the campaigns - there's a firm working for Jolly showing him in the lead.  If I can find a more "reliable" (yeah, I know, with polling it's not that exact a science unless you're Drunk Nate Silver) polling source I'll post it.

The election is on March 11.

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P.S. Got Another Story Submission Accepted!

Mystery & Horror LLC accepted a short story for their upcoming Mardi Gras Murder anthology!

Bring me the finest cheeses and non-alcoholic beverages in the land!

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Division

What does it tell you when the opposition party plans not one but THREE separate presentations against the President's annual State of the Union (AKA the one where no President is crazy enough to tell the truth and always says, ALWAYS SAYS, "The state of the Union is STRONG" like the White House doesn't have access to a freaking THESAURUS, I mean damn use a new word people!)?

What does it say that the modern GOP is so divided between the establishment wing, the Tea Party wing, and the ego-minded "lemme get my name out there for 2016" wing that they're going to give three boring reprisal spiels to follow up Obama's boring checklist for 2014?

From Salon.com:

...That’s right: It’s almost time for the annual State of the Union address and its rapidly multiplying responses...following the president’s address, Americans will also (if they choose to) hear from three separate elected Republicans. Because if there’s anything Americans love more than lengthy speeches from politicians, it’s three successive lengthy speeches from politicians...

There's the response from the establishment wing by Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rogers (highest ranking female Republican in the House), then the response from the Tea Party faction by Senator Mike Lee, and also a response via personal YouTube channel by Senator (and 2016 campaigner) Rand Paul.

...When Michele Bachmann delivered her “Tea Party” response to the State of the Union in 2011, it seemed unlikely to become a tradition. But the next year, presidential candidate and pizza magnate Herman Cain delivered his own Tea Party response. Then came Paul, who apparently enjoyed it so much that he decided to deliver his own totally unaffiliated response speech Tuesday, to be posted on YouTube and sent out directly to his followers and fans via his email list...

...Rand Paul’s response won’t be on the networks, because Rand Paul’s audience isn’t everyone, and his intention isn’t necessarily to persuade the median voter. He will sit for cable news interviews after the speech, and hit up the Sunday show circuit a few days later, because he’s still campaigning for 2016 and needs as much free media as possible, but a YouTube response sent directly to people who already support Paul is mainly about energizing and expanding his list.

And that’s sort of the problem the Republican Party faces right now: For Paul, there’s not really any reason not to distract from the “official” party response with a nakedly self-serving bit of early campaigning. There’s nothing stopping whomever wants to declare themselves “the Tea Party” from delivering a response too, because part of identifying with the Tea Party is rejecting the “Washington” leadership of the GOP... but the responses are multiplying for the same reason phony talking filibusters suddenly caught on among Senate Republicans last year: because the GOP is effectively leaderless and acting like a rebel insurgent is the only way to win over grass-roots conservative voters...

The leaderless issue stems from how Speaker Boehner - technically the highest ranking Republican in government - seems unable to control the various conservative factions within his own party, something previous Speakers were supposed to do with a level of finesse and back-room bullying.  (Part of this "lawlessness" within the House has been the blocking of pork-barrel spending and committee patronage: Speakers no longer have a carrot to help keep party factions in line)  But there are other reasons why the GOP is leaderless: The most obvious is that there are too many splits within the furthest wing of the political spectrum: there's too many Far Right groups struggling for control without any moderate faction to balance them (or force them to unite against intra-party rivals).

The current schisms seem to be between the ones most wanting to prove themselves the heirs to Reagan (the Establishment), the ones most wanting to prove themselves the heirs to Reagan and Ayn Rand (the Libertarian), and the ones most wanting to prove themselves the heirs to Reagan no wait Richard Nixon well not really oh hey yeah Strom Thurmond and Jerry Falwell (the Tea Party).  The ones most wanting to prove themselves the heirs to Teddy Roosevelt and Ike have pretty much been forced to sit in the hall outside the principal's office (RINOs).

Despite the similarities these factions share with each other - a hatred of hippie libruls and hating on Obama for simply existing - they're all jockeying for dominance within the GOP itself because there are still slight differences.  The Establishment types are for basic deregs and no tax hikes, talking the game but amenable (without admitting to it) to making deals on issues like immigration.  The Libertarians are fully small government (total deregulation) to the point of hating government, but not too keen on social issues like the drug war or abortion.  The Tea Partiers say they're all for fighting taxes, but they've really organized over social (anti-immigration, anti-Obamacare) and religious (abortion) issues and protecting their own interests (Medicare and Social Security, but only for themselves).

Adding to the craziness is the need to grandstand - much like Paul doing his own counter-speech to the counter-speeches already lined up - in order for each official to claim the banner of "flag-carrier" for whichever movement they seek to front.  It's a kind of Catch-22: the Republicans appear leaderless, so individual Republicans present themselves as the leader except for the fact there's 10 to 50 other Republicans doing the same thing, forcing them to fight each other and perpetuating the view that the Republicans are leaderless...

So you've got them - the individual grandstanders, the three major wingnut factions - pulling the party apart. Primarily because the other option - forming their own political party - is too much work and not guaranteed to succeed.  Our electoral system is geared to two parties: third parties do not last long, as history bore out.  Owning the Republican Party outright is the smart move.  And the ones who do own the Republican Party - the deep pocket uber-billionaires like the Koch Brothers - honestly don't care which faction is at the controls as long as their pet projects - tax cuts and deregulation - stay safe.

The other problem with the GOP being leaderless is that the real leaders - the aforementioned deep pocket billionaires, the media elite types like Rush Limbaugh and Fox Not-News manager Roger Ailes - are not in positions of accountability within the party itself.  None of them hold offices either within the party nor elected positions in a federal or state government.  They are talking heads standing on the sidelines, caustic critics throwing bombs at foe and friend alike, refusing to answer to anyone and forcing the actual elected officials to kow-tow to them.  It'd be up to them other normal circumstances to broker deals in the back rooms to get one faction favored over another... but favoring one to the exclusion of the others is bound to piss those factions off to commit acts of sabotage (say, refusing any deals to resolve a government shutdown).  And the factions are relatively weak because none of them - Libertarian, Tea Partier, even the Establishment faction - appeal outside of their Far Right base.  None of them have members that appeal to the populism of a Reagan or even Bush the Lesser (none of the potential leaders are Passive-Positive personalities).

As long as there's been opposition replies to a State of the Union (since 1966), there's never been a divided series of replies like this.  Letting the Tea Party faction in 2011 do their own didn't help the Republicans, and now they're up to three separate replies with no guarantee any of them will stay "on message" to help with the 2014 mid-terms.  Who's to say by 2016 the Republicans are going to have twenty, most of them by desperate primary-running Presidential candidates, half of them spewing craziness that wins over primary voters but scares off the moderate, mainstream voters that are needed to win general elections?

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